Could an American Be the Next Pope? Experts Say It’s Unlikely

With 61.9 million Catholics in the United States representing about 19% of the total population, religious scholars and Vatican observers are discussing whether an American could be elected as the next pontiff following Pope Francis’ death on Monday at age 88.

The United States has the second-highest number of cardinals in the world after Italy, with 17 American cardinals total and 10 who are eligible to vote in the papal conclave. Italy leads with 51 cardinals, including 17 eligible voters, according to Vatican statistics.

Despite America’s significant Catholic population, experts suggest the likelihood of an American pope remains slim. Anne Barrett Doyle, co-director of BishopAccountability.org, told ABC News that an American pontiff could be perceived as “overwhelming” given the United States’ existing global dominance.

“If the Catholic Church were also run by an American, the global dominance of the U.S. would be simply pervasive and overwhelming,” Barrett Doyle stated.

While technically any baptized Catholic man can become pope, candidates are typically chosen from the College of Cardinals, with only those under 80 years old eligible to vote in the election.

Cristina Traina, a religious studies professor at Fordham University, noted that several U.S. cardinals have been mentioned as possible successors, but expressed skepticism about their chances.

“I think it’s unlikely because the American church is seen as contentious at this moment,” Traina said. “So, I think they are much more likely to go either for a European or someone from the global south or Asia.”

Among the American candidates who have received mention is Cardinal Joseph Tobin, the 73-year-old archbishop of the Archdiocese of Newark, New Jersey since 2017. Tobin was named to the College of Cardinals by Pope Francis in 2016 after previously serving as Archbishop of Indianapolis.

Another potential American candidate is Cardinal Robert Prevost, 69, who was included on a short list of frontrunners compiled by the Associated Press. Since 2023, Prevost has served at the Vatican as Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, overseeing nominations for bishops worldwide.

Dr. Miles Pattenden, a historian of the Catholic Church and lecturer at Oxford University, also expressed doubt about the prospects of an American pope, citing historical tensions between Pope Francis and the Trump administration.

“There has traditionally been a lot of wariness about a pope from the Anglosphere,” Pattenden said. “I shouldn’t think that the current circumstances change that, especially now with the tensions between the Vatican and the Trump administration.”

In February, Pope Francis described the mass deportation crackdown ordered by President Donald Trump’s administration as a “major crisis” in a public letter to U.S. Catholic bishops.

President Trump, who has ordered flags to be flown at half-staff in honor of Pope Francis, announced that he and First Lady Melania Trump plan to attend the pontiff’s funeral in Rome. “He was a good man. Worked hard. He loved the world,” Trump said at the White House.

Pope Francis, who died of a heart attack and stroke, was the first non-European pope in nearly 1,300 years. His passing marks the beginning of the process to select a new leader for the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics.